honeyscenarios

Honey scenarios

Harder to lose. More ways to win.

The pool always comes back to the holders. The pot goes to the last buyers, the very last one and every holder.

Every Honey token blows up at a secret minute, and when it does, the pool goes back to the holders and the fee pot is split between the last buyers, the very last one and every holder. The minute is drawn on-chain, between 5 minutes and 24 hours, and you claim your part in the app, no deadline. You can still lose: buy high and, unless you are among the last 30 buyers, your slice is worth less than you paid. Most tokens boom small and a few run; the real-market cards below replay six of them, buys and sells included, with every number computed.

The game in 4 stepsHoney vs classicSix quick storiesReal marketTry your move14 scenarios

The game

The game in 4 steps

No numbers yet. This is all a Honey token does, from launch to boom.

  1. 1

    Launch

    Anyone launches a token. Honey's program opens the pool and seals a secret lifespan that nobody can read, not even Honey.

  2. 2

    Trade anywhere

    Buy and sell on Honey, Axiom, Photon or Jupiter. A fee on every trade fills the token's pot.

  3. 3

    The last 30 buyers

    A buy on Honey joins the last 30 buyers: that place is called a seat. Every new buyer pushes the oldest out, so the list always holds the 30 most recent buys. Sell and you leave it.

  4. 4

    Boom: trading stops, you claim

    At the secret minute the program pulls the pool: no more buys, no more sells. Everyone's PnL is settled at once: holders claim their SOL plus 20% of the pot, the last 30 buyers share 60% of it, the very last buyer takes the 20% jackpot.

Same move, two games

Honey vs a classic memecoin

The same four moves, side by side. The honest part is in the second row: a late buyer loses on Honey too.

You bought early and held

Classic memecoin
You win only if you sell before the crowd does. Hold too long and the exit is gone.
Honey
You hold many tokens per SOL. At the boom the pool comes back to you, pro-rata: usually more than you paid.

You bought late

Classic memecoin
You are the exit liquidity. When the chart turns, your tokens are worth what the next buyer pays, often nothing.
Honey
You lose too: your slice of the pool is worth less than you paid. Only a place among the last 30 buyers, or the jackpot, can turn it around, and most late buyers get neither.

The dev dumps

Classic memecoin
The price craters and nothing owes you anything. The dev keeps the SOL.
Honey
The price falls and the pool shrinks, but the program still returns what is left to every holder at the boom. Nobody can pull the pool, not even the dev.

The token blows up

Classic memecoin
Liquidity gone or locked forever. You keep worthless tokens.
Honey
Trading stops. The pool comes back to you, pro-rata, with 20% of the pot; the rest of the pot goes to the last 30 buyers and the very last one. You claim it in the app, no deadline.

you come out ahead you lose depends on your exit

Six quick stories

Six people, six moves, one number each

Every number below is computed by the engine that replays Honey's rules, on tokens like the ones in the detailed cards further down. Green is money made, red is money lost.

  1. Léa

    +0.52 SOL (+103%)

    Léa buys 0.5 SOL at minute 3 and holds. A hundred trades, half of them sells, push the token ×4; it blows up at 40 minutes.

    Why: She bought early, so she holds many tokens per SOL: at the boom her slice of the pool (0.88 SOL) is worth more than she paid, even after the 5% fee of minute 3. Sellers leave the list of the last 30 buyers, so she was still counted at the boom: 0.14 SOL of the pot came on top.

  2. Marc

    −0.51 SOL (−51%)

    Marc buys 1 SOL at the top, on Axiom, so not counted among the last 30 buyers. The token blows 10 minutes later.

    Why: He paid ×4 the launch price, so his tokens are a thin slice of the pool: about 49% of his SOL comes back, and, bought outside Honey, nothing from the pot.

  3. Nina

    +0.55 SOL (+547%)

    Nina buys 0.1 SOL on Honey two minutes before the boom of a token that went ×5 on 160 trades.

    Why: She was the very last buyer when it boomed: the 20% jackpot, 0.60 SOL of a 2.98 SOL pot fed by every buy and every sell, on top of her small pool share. Nobody can plan this: the minute is secret.

  4. Tom

    −0.32 SOL (−32%)

    Tom snipes the first second with 1 SOL. Twelve small trades follow, the token never leaves $4.4k and blows up at 6 minutes.

    Why: Half of his SOL went to fees in the first second, most of it into the pot. As the earliest of the buyers still counted among the last 30 he got 0.12 SOL of it back, and 0.56 SOL from the pool. Not the rest.

  5. Sam

    +0.38 SOL (+76%)

    Sam buys 0.5 SOL at minute 10, one of the last 30 buyers. Dozens of buyers follow and push him out of the list.

    Why: He left the last 30 buyers at 44 min 7 s, not his tokens: he bought early in a token that went ×5, so his slice of the pool is worth more than he paid.

  6. Zoé

    +0.07 SOL (+7%)

    Zoé buys 1 SOL at minute 30 of a token going ×4. Ten minutes later the creator sells everything. The token blows up at 1 h 30.

    Why: The dump took 2.28 SOL out of the pool and the chart fell, but the program still returned 30.23 SOL to the holders at the boom, and her place among the last 30 buyers added 0.07 SOL. In a classic rug, her 1 SOL would be gone.

Real market

Real market: six tokens as they actually trade

Six crowds that buy and sell, all the time, like a live token, replayed under Honey's rules. Calibrated on rough orders of magnitude from how memecoins trade on Solana, not on measured facts: a launch at $4,080 (30 SOL), most tokens boomed under $10k with a few hundred trades, about 1 in 10 reaching $50k, about 1 in 100 passing $300k, $1M+ roughly 1 in 1,000; about half of the trades are sells, partial or full; the volume is several times the net SOL that stays in the pool. The crowds are sized so each chart ends near its target; everything else, the peak, the volume, the fees, the pot, who counts among the last 30 buyers, is computed. Market caps in dollars first at $136 per SOL, the SOL in parentheses.

A

Most tokens

Boomed at $8.3k after 127 trades in 35 minutes

The usual life. 127 trades in 35 minutes, 53% of them sells, partial or full, about 1.00 SOL per buy; a bump to $15k (112 SOL) at 11 min 54 s, then the sellers take over. The fuse runs out at 35 minutes with the market cap at $8.3k (61 SOL).

  • 1Creator buys 0.30 SOL · first second
  • 2Early buys 0.30 SOL · 1 min
  • 3Trader buys 0.50 SOL · 3 min
  • 4Trader sells for 1.07 SOL at +136% · 12 min
  • 5Mid buys 0.50 SOL · 13 min
  • 6Mid sells for 0.30 SOL at −35% · 28 min
  • 7Late buys 0.50 SOL · 30 min
  • 8Buyer 55 buys 1.13 SOL · 34 min 50 s

market cap at the boom $8.3k (61 SOL), ×2.0 the launch·peak $15k (112 SOL)·127 trades, 53% sells·pool 12.68 SOL back to the holders·pot 3.76 SOL: 60% to the 13 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.75 SOL) to every holder

What this showsMost tokens boom small. The pool at the boom, 12.68 SOL, is the net inflow, 12% of the 103.3 SOL traded; the pot, 3.76 SOL, grew with every buy and every sell and is 23% of what comes back. The early buyer who held wins only through the pot: his pool share alone was under what he paid.

  • Early, 0.3 SOL at minute 1, held

    +0.37 SOL (+123%)

    bought 0.30 SOL at 1 min · 35% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 34 min

    Paid 0.30 SOL · Got back 0.67 SOL (pool 0.27 SOL · last-30 prize 0.39 SOL)

  • Trader, 0.5 SOL at minute 3, sold everything at the peak ($15k, 112 SOL)

    +0.57 SOL (+113%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 3 min · 5% fee · left the last 30 by selling at 12 min

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 1.07 SOL (sold 1.07 SOL at +136% · nothing to claim)

  • Mid, 0.5 SOL at the top ($15k, 107 SOL), sold at a loss

    −0.20 SOL (−40%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 13 min · 4% fee · left the last 30 by selling at 28 min

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.30 SOL (sold 0.30 SOL at −35% · nothing to claim)

  • Late, 0.5 SOL at 30 min on Axiom ($8.0k, 59 SOL), no place

    −0.13 SOL (−26%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 30 min · 4% fee · not among the last 30 (bought outside Honey)

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.37 SOL (pool 0.37 SOL)

  • One of the last 30 buyers, on average

    −0.20 SOL (−22%)

    13 buyers counted at the boom, bought 10 s to 34 min before it · 0.94 SOL each on average

    Paid 0.94 SOL · Got back 0.74 SOL (pool 0.56 SOL · last-30 prize 0.17 SOL, on average · the 0.75 SOL jackpot aside)

  • The very last buyer

    +0.45 SOL (+40%)

    bought 1.13 SOL at 34 min 50 s · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 10 s, the very last buyer

    Paid 1.13 SOL · Got back 1.58 SOL (pool 0.83 SOL · last-30 prize 0.002 SOL · jackpot 0.75 SOL)

  • The creator, 0.3 SOL first buy

    +0.44 SOL (+107%)

    bought 0.30 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 11 min 54 s

    Paid 0.41 SOL · Got back 0.85 SOL (pool 0.22 SOL · creator fees 0.63 SOL)

Where the SOL went

Volume
103.3 SOL ($14k): 60.19 SOL bought in 60 buys, 43.09 SOL sold in 67 sells
Fees paid
6.27 SOL ($853)
Meteora 20%
1.25 SOL
Creator 12.5%
0.63 SOL
Honey 12.5%
0.63 SOL
The pot
3.76 SOL ($512)
Pool at the boom
12.68 SOL ($1.7k)

The pool at the boom is the net inflow, 12% of the volume, far smaller than what was traded. The pot grew with the whole volume, sells included: it is 23% of what comes back here, and the heavier the trading, the bigger that share and the more the last 30 buyers matter.

The lesson

In most tokens the chart never goes far and the sellers leave the list of the last 30 buyers, so only 13 of them were still counted at the boom. Early's pool share was 0.27 SOL on 0.30 SOL paid (the launch tax of minute 1), but as the oldest of the counted buyers he took 0.39 SOL of the 3.76 SOL pot: +123%. Trader sold at the peak for 1.07 SOL (+113%) and has nothing to claim. Mid bought the top and sold lower: −40%. Late bought on Axiom and held: −26%, no place among the last 30. The very last buyer took the 0.75 SOL jackpot (+40%). The creator earned 0.63 SOL of fees on 103.3 SOL of volume.

B

About 1 in 10

A decent run: peak $62k, boomed at $39k

A token that found a crowd. 907 trades over 3 hours, 48% of them sells, about 0.63 SOL per buy; a run to $62k (454 SOL) at 2 h 19, then a fade. The fuse runs out at 3 h 20 with the market cap at $39k (290 SOL).

  • 1Creator buys 0.50 SOL · first second
  • 2Early buys 0.50 SOL · 1 min
  • 3Trader buys 1.00 SOL · 5 min
  • 4Mid buys 1.00 SOL · 2 h 15
  • 5Trader sells for 9.77 SOL at +1029% · 2 h 20
  • 6Late buys 1.00 SOL · 2 h 40
  • 7Buyer 464 buys 1.09 SOL · 2 h 59
  • 8Mid sells for 0.62 SOL at −33% · 3 h

market cap at the boom $39k (290 SOL), ×9.7 the launch·peak $62k (454 SOL)·907 trades, 48% sells·pool 63.27 SOL back to the holders·pot 12.99 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (2.60 SOL) to every holder

What this showsAbout one token in ten gets here. The pool at the boom, 63.27 SOL, is the net inflow, 12% of the 510.3 SOL traded; the pot, 12.99 SOL, grew with every buy and every sell and is 17% of what comes back. The early holder wins from the pool, the trader who sold at the peak wins more, the top buyers lose.

  • Early, 0.5 SOL at minute 1, held

    +0.51 SOL (+102%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 1 min · 35% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 19 min 32 s

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 1.01 SOL (pool 1.01 SOL)

  • Trader, 1 SOL at minute 5, sold everything at the peak ($61k, 449 SOL)

    +8.77 SOL (+877%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 5 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 20 min 51 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 9.77 SOL (sold 9.77 SOL at +1029% · nothing to claim)

  • Mid, 1 SOL at the top ($60k, 438 SOL), sold at a loss

    −0.38 SOL (−38%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 2 h 15 · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 2 h 25

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.62 SOL (sold 0.62 SOL at −33% · nothing to claim)

  • Late, 1 SOL at 2 h 40 on Axiom ($40k, 295 SOL), no place

    −0.68 SOL (−68%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 2 h 40 · 4% fee · not among the last 30 (bought outside Honey)

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.32 SOL (pool 0.32 SOL)

  • One of the last 30 buyers, on average

    −0.17 SOL (−27%)

    30 buyers counted at the boom, bought 20 min to 40 min before it · 0.63 SOL each on average

    Paid 0.63 SOL · Got back 0.46 SOL (pool 0.20 SOL · last-30 prize 0.26 SOL, on average · the 2.60 SOL jackpot aside)

  • The very last buyer

    +2.03 SOL (+187%)

    bought 1.09 SOL at 2 h 59 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 20 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 1.09 SOL · Got back 3.12 SOL (pool 0.35 SOL · last-30 prize 0.17 SOL · jackpot 2.60 SOL)

  • The creator, 0.5 SOL first buy

    +2.36 SOL (+385%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 18 min 53 s

    Paid 0.61 SOL · Got back 2.97 SOL (pool 0.80 SOL · creator fees 2.17 SOL)

Where the SOL went

Volume
510.3 SOL ($69k): 293.3 SOL bought in 469 buys, 217.1 SOL sold in 438 sells
Fees paid
21.65 SOL ($2.9k)
Meteora 20%
4.33 SOL
Creator 12.5%
2.17 SOL
Honey 12.5%
2.17 SOL
The pot
12.99 SOL ($1.8k)
Pool at the boom
63.27 SOL ($8.6k)

The pool at the boom is the net inflow, 12% of the volume, far smaller than what was traded. The pot grew with the whole volume, sells included: it is 17% of what comes back here, and the heavier the trading, the bigger that share and the more the last 30 buyers matter.

The lesson

At the boom every token is worth the average price paid, net of fees: 63.27 SOL for 678M tokens. Early bought under that average and held: +102%. Trader sold at the peak for 9.77 SOL: +877%, nothing to claim, the biggest win on the card. Mid bought the top and sold lower (−38%); Late bought at $40k mcap (295 SOL, ×9.8) on Axiom and held: −68%. With 907 trades the list of the last 30 buyers turns over every few minutes: the 30 counted at the boom shared 7.79 SOL (0.26 SOL each on average), the very last buyer took the 2.60 SOL jackpot (+187%) and the other 20%, 2.60 SOL, went into the pool for every holder.

C

About 1 in 100

The runner: peak $433k, boomed at $287k

The one people screenshot. 4,007 trades over 9 hours, 50% of them sells, about 1.41 SOL per buy with a few bigger ones; a run to $433k (3,181 SOL) at 4 h 39, then a slow fade. The fuse runs out at 9 h 10 with the market cap at $287k (2,112 SOL).

  • 1Creator buys 0.50 SOL · first second
  • 2Early buys 1.00 SOL · 1 min
  • 3Trader buys 1.00 SOL · 10 min
  • 4Mid buys 1.00 SOL · 4 h 30
  • 5Trader sells for 21.19 SOL at +2353% · 5 h
  • 6Late buys 1.00 SOL · 8 h
  • 7Mid sells for 0.57 SOL at −38% · 8 h 30
  • 8Buyer 2006 buys 4.73 SOL · 8 h 59

market cap at the boom $287k (2,112 SOL), ×70.4 the launch·peak $433k (3,181 SOL)·4,007 trades, 50% sells·pool 221.7 SOL back to the holders·pot 130.8 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (26.16 SOL) to every holder

What this showsAbout one token in a hundred gets here. The pool at the boom, 221.7 SOL, is the net inflow, 4% of the 5,343 SOL traded; the pot, 130.8 SOL, grew with every buy and every sell and is 37% of what comes back. At this pot size a buy must be at least 1.31 SOL (1% of the pot) to count among the last 30 buyers, so they are the bigger buyers of the last minutes.

  • Early, 1 SOL at minute 1, held

    +4.47 SOL (+447%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 1 min · 35% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 14 min 3 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 5.47 SOL (pool 5.47 SOL)

  • Trader, 1 SOL at minute 10, sold everything near the peak ($357k, 2,628 SOL)

    +20.19 SOL (+2019%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 10 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 20 min 40 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 21.19 SOL (sold 21.19 SOL at +2353% · nothing to claim)

  • Mid, 1 SOL at the top ($381k, 2,800 SOL), sold at a loss

    −0.43 SOL (−43%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 4 h 30 · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 4 h 43

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.57 SOL (sold 0.57 SOL at −38% · nothing to claim)

  • Late, 1 SOL at 8 h on Honey ($244k, 1,791 SOL), under the minimum to count

    −0.85 SOL (−85%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 8 h · 4% fee · not among the last 30 (under the minimum)

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.15 SOL (pool 0.15 SOL)

  • One of the last 30 buyers, on average

    −0.08 SOL (−2%)

    30 buyers counted at the boom, bought 10 min to 47 min before it · 3.14 SOL each on average

    Paid 3.14 SOL · Got back 3.06 SOL (pool 0.44 SOL · last-30 prize 2.62 SOL, on average · the 26.16 SOL jackpot aside)

  • The very last buyer

    +22.97 SOL (+485%)

    bought 4.73 SOL at 8 h 59 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 10 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 4.73 SOL · Got back 27.70 SOL (pool 0.61 SOL · last-30 prize 0.93 SOL · jackpot 26.16 SOL)

  • The creator, 0.5 SOL first buy

    +23.51 SOL (+3846%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 13 min 31 s

    Paid 0.61 SOL · Got back 24.13 SOL (pool 2.33 SOL · creator fees 21.80 SOL)

Where the SOL went

Volume
5,343 SOL ($727k): 2,841 SOL bought in 2,011 buys, 2,502 SOL sold in 1,996 sells
Fees paid
218.0 SOL ($30k)
Meteora 20%
43.60 SOL
Creator 12.5%
21.80 SOL
Honey 12.5%
21.80 SOL
The pot
130.8 SOL ($18k)
Pool at the boom
221.7 SOL ($30k)

The pool at the boom is the net inflow, 4% of the volume, far smaller than what was traded. The pot grew with the whole volume, sells included: it is 37% of what comes back here, and the heavier the trading, the bigger that share and the more the last 30 buyers matter.

The lesson

The chart said Early's tokens were worth 41.03 SOL at the boom; the pool paid 5.47 SOL, the average price paid: +447% on 1 SOL. Trader sold near the peak for 21.19 SOL (+2019%): in a runner, selling on the way up beats holding, and the pot gets the fee either way. Late bought at $244k mcap (1,791 SOL, ×60) and got 0.15 SOL back (−85%): under the 1.31 SOL minimum, no place among the last 30. The 130.8 SOL pot is 37% of what comes back: the 30 counted buyers, 3.14 SOL each on average, shared 78.48 SOL, the very last one took the 26.16 SOL jackpot (+485%) and 26.16 SOL went into the pool for every holder. The creator's 12.5% of the fees came to 21.80 SOL.

D

About 1 in 1,000

The moonshot: peak $2.3M, boomed at $1.5M

Rare: roughly one token in a thousand. 12,007 trades over 18 hours, 49% of them sells, about 2.51 SOL per buy with a few bigger ones; a run to $2.3M (16,713 SOL) at 14 h 05, then a fade. The fuse runs out at 18 h 05 with the market cap at $1.5M (11,385 SOL).

  • 1Creator buys 1.00 SOL · first second
  • 2Early buys 1.00 SOL · 1 min
  • 3Trader buys 1.00 SOL · 10 min
  • 4Mid buys 1.00 SOL · 14 h
  • 5Trader sells for 47.41 SOL at +5469% · 15 h
  • 6Late buys 2.00 SOL · 16 h
  • 7Mid sells for 0.78 SOL at −15% · 17 h 30
  • 8Buyer 6106 buys 8.41 SOL · 17 h 59

market cap at the boom $1.5M (11,385 SOL), ×380 the launch·peak $2.3M (16,713 SOL)·12,007 trades, 49% sells·pool 554.4 SOL back to the holders·pot 715.9 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (143.2 SOL) to every holder

What this showsThe rarest card. The pool at the boom, 554.4 SOL, is the net inflow, 2% of the 29,560 SOL traded; the pot, 715.9 SOL, grew with every buy and every sell and is 56% of what comes back. With this much trading the pot ($97k) outweighs the pool, a buy must be at least 7.16 SOL to count among the last 30, and those 30 matter more than anyone.

  • Early, 1 SOL at minute 1, held

    +10.64 SOL (+1064%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 1 min · 35% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 10 min 11 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 11.64 SOL (pool 11.64 SOL)

  • Trader, 1 SOL at minute 10, sold everything near the peak ($1.4M, 10,466 SOL)

    +46.41 SOL (+4641%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 10 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 17 min 16 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 47.41 SOL (sold 47.41 SOL at +5469% · nothing to claim)

  • Mid, 1 SOL at the top ($2.1M, 15,167 SOL), sold at a loss

    −0.22 SOL (−22%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 14 h · 4% fee · not among the last 30 (under the minimum)

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.78 SOL (sold 0.78 SOL at −15% · nothing to claim)

  • Late, 2 SOL at 16 h on Honey ($1.5M, 11,260 SOL), under the minimum to count

    −1.87 SOL (−94%)

    bought 2.00 SOL at 16 h · 4% fee · not among the last 30 (under the minimum)

    Paid 2.00 SOL · Got back 0.13 SOL (pool 0.13 SOL)

  • One of the last 30 buyers, on average

    +5.88 SOL (+65%)

    30 buyers counted at the boom, bought 5 min to 59 min before it · 8.97 SOL each on average

    Paid 8.97 SOL · Got back 14.85 SOL (pool 0.53 SOL · last-30 prize 14.32 SOL, on average · the 143.2 SOL jackpot aside)

  • The very last buyer

    +137.63 SOL (+1636%)

    bought 8.41 SOL at 17 h 59 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 5 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 8.41 SOL · Got back 146.0 SOL (pool 0.53 SOL · last-30 prize 2.34 SOL · jackpot 143.2 SOL)

  • The creator, 1 SOL first buy

    +130.25 SOL (+11720%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 10 min 1 s

    Paid 1.11 SOL · Got back 131.4 SOL (pool 12.05 SOL · creator fees 119.3 SOL)

Where the SOL went

Volume
29,560 SOL ($4.0M): 15,369 SOL bought in 6,112 buys, 14,191 SOL sold in 5,895 sells
Fees paid
1,193 SOL ($162k)
Meteora 20%
238.6 SOL
Creator 12.5%
119.3 SOL
Honey 12.5%
119.3 SOL
The pot
715.9 SOL ($97k)
Pool at the boom
554.4 SOL ($75k)

The pool at the boom is the net inflow, 2% of the volume, far smaller than what was traded. The pot grew with the whole volume, sells included: it is 56% of what comes back here, and the heavier the trading, the bigger that share and the more the last 30 buyers matter.

The lesson

Early's 1 SOL showed 180.2 SOL on the chart and claimed 11.64 SOL from the pool (+1064%): the pool pays the average price, never the chart. Trader sold near the peak for 47.41 SOL (+4641%). Late bought at $1.5M mcap (11,260 SOL, ×375) and got 0.13 SOL of its 2 SOL back (−94%). The 715.9 SOL pot ($97k) is 56% of everything that comes back, and a buy had to be 7.16 SOL or more to count: the 30 counted buyers, 8.97 SOL each on average, shared 429.5 SOL (+65% on average, jackpot aside), the very last one took a 143.2 SOL jackpot (+1636%) and 143.2 SOL went into the pool for every holder. Nobody can time that minute.

E

Common

Pump and dump: $108k at 24 min, −90% by the boom

A classic. 707 trades: a rush to $108k (792 SOL) in 24 min, then the holders dump, most of them everything, and a small bounce. The fuse runs out at 1 h 30 with the market cap at $11k (81 SOL).

  • 1Creator buys 0.50 SOL · first second
  • 2Early buys 0.50 SOL · 1 min
  • 3Trader buys 1.00 SOL · 5 min
  • 4Mid buys 1.00 SOL · 22 min
  • 5Late buys 1.00 SOL · 24 min
  • 6Trader sells for 6.35 SOL at +607% · 25 min
  • 7Mid sells for 0.18 SOL at −81% · 50 min
  • 8Buyer 302 buys 0.29 SOL · 1 h 29

market cap at the boom $11k (81 SOL), ×2.7 the launch·peak $108k (792 SOL)·707 trades, 57% sells·pool 19.25 SOL back to the holders·pot 16.66 SOL: 60% to the 26 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (3.33 SOL) to every holder

What this showsThe pool at the boom, 19.25 SOL, is the net inflow, 4% of the 540.2 SOL traded; the pot, 16.66 SOL, grew with every buy and every sell and is 46% of what comes back. The dump paid the fee too, which is why the pot outweighs the pool here, and the last 30 buyers who held through it did well.

  • Early, 0.5 SOL at minute 1, held through the dump

    −0.03 SOL (−6%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 1 min · 35% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 5 min

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.47 SOL (pool 0.47 SOL)

  • Trader, 1 SOL at minute 5, sold everything at the top ($108k, 792 SOL)

    +5.35 SOL (+535%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 5 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 8 min 8 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 6.35 SOL (sold 6.35 SOL at +607% · nothing to claim)

  • Mid, 1 SOL near the top ($88k, 650 SOL), sold into the dump

    −0.82 SOL (−82%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 22 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 24 min 57 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.18 SOL (sold 0.18 SOL at −81% · nothing to claim)

  • Late, 1 SOL at the top ($108k, 792 SOL) on Axiom, held

    −0.93 SOL (−93%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 24 min · 4% fee · not among the last 30 (bought outside Honey)

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.07 SOL (pool 0.07 SOL)

  • One of the last 30 buyers who held, on average

    +0.13 SOL (+15%)

    26 buyers counted at the boom, bought 13 s to 1 h 07 before it · 0.84 SOL each on average

    Paid 0.84 SOL · Got back 0.97 SOL (pool 0.58 SOL · last-30 prize 0.38 SOL, on average · the 3.33 SOL jackpot aside)

  • The very last buyer

    +3.25 SOL (+1119%)

    bought 0.29 SOL at 1 h 29 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 13 s, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.29 SOL · Got back 3.54 SOL (pool 0.20 SOL · last-30 prize 0.004 SOL · jackpot 3.33 SOL)

  • The creator, 0.5 SOL first buy

    +2.64 SOL (+432%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 4 min 28 s

    Paid 0.61 SOL · Got back 3.25 SOL (pool 0.48 SOL · creator fees 2.78 SOL)

Where the SOL went

Volume
540.2 SOL ($73k): 288.2 SOL bought in 307 buys, 251.9 SOL sold in 400 sells
Fees paid
27.77 SOL ($3.8k)
Meteora 20%
5.55 SOL
Creator 12.5%
2.78 SOL
Honey 12.5%
2.78 SOL
The pot
16.66 SOL ($2.3k)
Pool at the boom
19.25 SOL ($2.6k)

The pool at the boom is the net inflow, 4% of the volume, far smaller than what was traded. The pot grew with the whole volume, sells included: it is 46% of what comes back here, and the heavier the trading, the bigger that share and the more the last 30 buyers matter.

The lesson

The pool held 124.1 SOL at the top; the sells took 251.9 SOL out over the life and 19.25 SOL were left for the holders. Trader sold at the top for 6.35 SOL (+535%). Mid sold into the dump: −82%. Late bought the top, $108k mcap (792 SOL, ×26), on Axiom and held: −93%. Even Early, in at minute 1, ended −6%: a dump is a dump. What Honey changes is where the fees went: 16.66 SOL of pot, 46% of what comes back, to the 26 of the last 30 buyers who had not sold (0.38 SOL each on average) and a 3.33 SOL jackpot to the very last one (+1119%).

F

Common

Boomed on arrival: 12 trades, never above $4.3k

Nobody came. The creator's first buy, seven small buys and four sells in six minutes, all inside the launch tax; the chart never left $4.3k (32 SOL). The fuse runs out at 6 minutes with the market cap at $4.3k (32 SOL).

  • 1Creator buys 0.30 SOL · first second
  • 2Early buys 0.20 SOL · 20 s
  • 3Buyer 1 buys 0.30 SOL · 45 s
  • 4Trader buys 0.50 SOL · 1 min 10 s
  • 5Buyer 1 sells for 0.15 SOL at +3% · 2 min 10 s
  • 6Trader sells for 0.31 SOL at +1% · 2 min 50 s
  • 7Buyer 4 buys 0.40 SOL · 3 min 20 s
  • 8Last buys 0.10 SOL · 5 min

market cap at the boom $4.3k (32 SOL), ×1.1 the launch·12 trades, 33% sells·pool 0.84 SOL back to the holders·pot 0.41 SOL: 60% to the 4 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.08 SOL) to every holder

What this showsVery common. The pool at the boom, 0.84 SOL, is the net inflow, 28% of the 2.95 SOL traded; the pot, 0.41 SOL, grew with every buy and every sell and is 33% of what comes back. The launch tax of the first minutes is the whole story: whoever sold paid it twice, whoever held got it back from the pot.

  • Early, 0.2 SOL at 20 s, held

    +0.01 SOL (+7%)

    bought 0.20 SOL at 20 s · 45% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 6 min

    Paid 0.20 SOL · Got back 0.21 SOL (pool 0.12 SOL · last-30 prize 0.09 SOL)

  • Trader, 0.5 SOL at 70 s, sold everything at 2 min 50

    −0.19 SOL (−38%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 1 min 10 s · 33% fee · left the last 30 by selling at 2 min 50 s

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.31 SOL (sold 0.31 SOL at +1% · nothing to claim)

  • Buyer 1, sold everything at +2% on the chart

    −0.15 SOL (−49%)

    bought 0.30 SOL at 45 s · 39% fee · left the last 30 by selling at 2 min 10 s

    Paid 0.30 SOL · Got back 0.15 SOL (sold 0.15 SOL at +3% · nothing to claim)

  • Buyer 4, 0.4 SOL at 3 min 20, held

    +0.05 SOL (+14%)

    bought 0.40 SOL at 3 min 20 s · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 3 min

    Paid 0.40 SOL · Got back 0.45 SOL (pool 0.41 SOL · last-30 prize 0.04 SOL)

  • One of the buyers still counted, on average

    −0.02 SOL (−5%)

    4 buyers counted at the boom, bought 1 min to 6 min before it · 0.28 SOL each on average

    Paid 0.28 SOL · Got back 0.26 SOL (pool 0.20 SOL · last-30 prize 0.06 SOL, on average · the 0.08 SOL jackpot aside)

  • Last, 0.1 SOL at 5 min, the very last buyer

    +0.10 SOL (+101%)

    bought 0.10 SOL at 5 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 1 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.10 SOL · Got back 0.20 SOL (pool 0.10 SOL · last-30 prize 0.02 SOL · jackpot 0.08 SOL)

  • The creator, 0.3 SOL first buy

    −0.08 SOL (−19%)

    bought 0.30 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · among the last 30 buyers for 6 min

    Paid 0.41 SOL · Got back 0.33 SOL (pool 0.17 SOL · last-30 prize 0.10 SOL · creator fees 0.07 SOL)

Where the SOL went

Volume
2.95 SOL ($401): 2.20 SOL bought in 8 buys, 0.75 SOL sold in 4 sells
Fees paid
0.68 SOL ($93)
Meteora 20%
0.14 SOL
Creator 12.5%
0.07 SOL
Honey 12.5%
0.07 SOL
The pot
0.41 SOL ($56)
Pool at the boom
0.84 SOL ($114)

The pool at the boom is the net inflow, 28% of the volume, far smaller than what was traded. The pot grew with the whole volume, sells included: it is 33% of what comes back here, and the heavier the trading, the bigger that share and the more the last 30 buyers matter.

The lesson

Everything happened under the launch tax (33% at Trader's buy). Trader bought and sold within two minutes and paid the fee twice: −38%. Buyer 4 held and lost only +14%: the pool gave back 0.41 SOL and the pot 0.04 SOL. Early, the oldest of the 4 buyers still counted, took 0.09 SOL of the 0.41 SOL pot: +7%. Last took the 0.08 SOL jackpot on 0.1 SOL (+101%). The creator got 0.33 SOL of its 0.41 SOL back. Nothing was rugged; the fees of a boomed token went back to the few who stayed.

The honest part

Four ways to win. Four ways to lose.

Yes, you can lose. Honey decides where the SOL goes, not that you profit. Here is what makes the difference.

Four ways to win

  1. Buy early, hold. Under the average price paid, your slice of the pool is worth more than you paid when it blows, and every holder's slice carries 20% of the pot.

  2. Be one of the last 30 buyers. 60% of the pot is shared by the last 30 buyers at the boom, the earliest of the 30 getting a bit more. Sell and you leave the list.

  3. Be the very last buyer. 20% of the pot, the jackpot, goes to the most recent buy past its warm-up: 0.20 SOL on a 0.1 SOL buy in scenario 07.

  4. Sell higher than you bought. The chart price minus 4% is yours, whatever happens next. You give up the claim, your place among the last 30 buyers and the jackpot.

Four ways to lose

  1. Buy high, outside the last 30 buyers. Above the average price paid, your slice of the pool is worth less than you paid: −58% for the buyer at ×7 in scenario 02.

  2. Sell lower than you bought. A sell takes the chart price minus 4%, and leaves nothing to claim.

  3. Snipe the launch. The fee is 50% in the first seconds and falls to 4% over 3 min 4 s. In a quiet token the sniper ends at −35% (scenario 03).

  4. Churn. Every buy and every sell pays the fee, 4% once the launch tax is over: a round trip costs about 8% before anything else happens.

Try your move

Pick a move, see what comes back

Choose when you buy, how much, what the token does, when it blows, and whether you sell first. The result card says whether you come out ahead, and why.

You buy at

How much

The token

It blows at

You sell before the boom

Count among the last 30 buyers

Your result

You come out ahead: +0.40 SOL (+80%)

The launch fee took 35% of your buy (0.17 SOL), most of it into the pot; you bought under the average price paid, so your slice of the pool is worth more than you paid; newer buyers pushed you out of the last 30 at 7 min 2 s, so nothing from the pot.

Paidat minute 1
0.50 SOL
Fee at your buythe launch tax, 60% of it into the pot
35% · 0.17 SOL
Tokens0.91% of the supply
9.1M
What the chart saidyour tokens at the boom price, market cap $40k (297 SOL) at the boom: not what you get
2.71 SOL
Your slice of the poolwhat you claim: 64.35 SOL in the pool plus 2.89 SOL from the pot, for 682.0M tokens
0.90 SOL
Last-30 prizepushed out at 7 min 2 s by newer buyers
0 SOL
Jackpot20% of the pot, to the very last buyer
0 SOL
Got back in total
0.90 SOL

The token: boomed at 1 h with a market cap of $40k (297 SOL) after a peak at $59k (437 SOL); 900 other trades, 48% of them sells, 506.4 SOL of volume; 64.35 SOL back to the holders (the net inflow), pot 14.46 SOL split between the last 30 buyers, the very last one and every holder (2.89 SOL into the pool). Whatever is yours waits in the vault until you claim it in the app.

Assumptions. The pool is the launch pool of /launch: 1B tokens, a 30 SOL launch market cap ($4,080 at $136 per SOL, like a pump.fun-style launch), constant-product curve (market cap = (30 + net SOL in)² / 30). The crowds are the real-market cards' ones, compressed into the chosen life: 900 trades here, about half of them sells, partial or full, spread through the life, the buys sized so the chart ends near the market cap the option names (a pump and dump peaks around $100k then loses most of it). The calibration is rough orders of magnitude from how memecoins trade on Solana, not measured facts: most tokens boom under $10k with a few hundred trades, about 1 in 10 reaches $50k, about 1 in 100 passes $300k, $1M+ is roughly 1 in 1,000; roughly half of all trades are sells; the volume is several times the net SOL that stays in the pool. A big run inside the launch tax pays it on every trade, so its pot is out of proportion: that is the rules, not a bug. Fees and the last 30 buyers follow the rules exactly: 50% fee at launch falling to 4% over 3 min 4 s, 60% of every fee into the pot, 60% of the pot to the last 30 buyers by time since their buy, 20% jackpot to the very last buyer, 20% to every holder with the pool, 6.5 s warm-up, a buy of at least 1% of the pot to count, the pool's SOL shared by holders in proportion to their tokens. No network fees, no slippage settings. The SOL figures are the computed ones; only the dollars are an assumption.

The detailed cards

14 ways a token's life can go

These isolate one move each; the real-market cards above mix buys and sells like a live token. Each card replays one token from launch to boom under the real rules: the trades, the fees, the last 30 buyers, then the split. One line above each table says what it shows. The last one is a real token on mainnet.

01

The quiet token

Five buyers, no sells, boomed at 12 minutes

A token nobody noticed. Five people bought in the first ten minutes, nobody sold, and the hidden fuse ran out at 12 minutes.

  • 1Ana buys 0.50 SOL · 40 s
  • 2Ben buys 0.30 SOL · 2 min
  • 3Cleo buys 1.00 SOL · 4 min
  • 4Dan buys 0.50 SOL · 7 min
  • 5Eve buys 0.20 SOL · 10 min

chart at the boom ×1.2·pool 2.17 SOL back to the holders·pot 0.20 SOL: 60% to the 5 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.04 SOL) to every holder

What this showsWith the launch tax and no pump, everyone loses a little, except the very last buyer, who takes the jackpot.

  • Ana, first in

    −0.14 SOL (−28%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 40 s · 40% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 11 min

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.36 SOL (pool 0.32 SOL · last-30 prize 0.04 SOL)

  • Ben

    −0.01 SOL (−4%)

    bought 0.30 SOL at 2 min · 20% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 10 min

    Paid 0.30 SOL · Got back 0.29 SOL (pool 0.25 SOL · last-30 prize 0.03 SOL)

  • Cleo, the biggest buy

    +0.007 SOL (+1%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 4 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 8 min

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 1.01 SOL (pool 0.98 SOL · last-30 prize 0.03 SOL)

  • Dan

    −0.02 SOL (−3%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 7 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 5 min

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.48 SOL (pool 0.47 SOL · last-30 prize 0.02 SOL)

  • Eve, last in

    +0.03 SOL (+15%)

    bought 0.20 SOL at 10 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 2 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.20 SOL · Got back 0.23 SOL (pool 0.18 SOL · last-30 prize 0.006 SOL · jackpot 0.04 SOL)

The lesson

Everyone who paid the launch tax got back less than they put in, even the first buyer: the pool only holds what came in after fees. The pot (0.20 SOL) mostly went to the very last buyer, Eve, whose 0.04 SOL jackpot turned her into the only winner (+15%).

02

The pump

200 buyers over 3 hours, ×8, boomed at 3 h 12

A token that worked. Two hundred buyers over three hours pushed the chart to ×8, then the fuse ran out twelve minutes after the last buy.

  • 1Early buys 0.50 SOL · 1 min
  • 2Mid buys 1.00 SOL · 1 h
  • 3Late buys 1.00 SOL · 2 h 50
  • 4Last buys 0.50 SOL · 3 h 01

chart at the boom ×8.5·pool 57.58 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.58 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.32 SOL) to every holder

What this showsAt the boom a token is worth the average price paid: early buyers win, late buyers lose unless being among the last 30 buyers saves them.

  • Early, minute 1

    +0.44 SOL (+88%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 1 min · 35% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 31 min 10 s

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.94 SOL (pool 0.94 SOL)

  • Mid, hour 1

    +0.47 SOL (+47%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 1 h · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 1 h 26

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 1.47 SOL (pool 1.47 SOL)

  • Late, at ×7

    −0.58 SOL (−58%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 2 h 50 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 22 min

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.42 SOL (pool 0.39 SOL · last-30 prize 0.03 SOL)

  • The very last buyer

    −0.004 SOL (−1%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 3 h 01 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 11 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.50 SOL (pool 0.17 SOL · last-30 prize 0.01 SOL · jackpot 0.32 SOL)

The lesson

At the boom every token is worth the average price the holders paid, not the chart price: 57.58 SOL in the pool for 657M tokens. Early bought under that average (+88%), Late above it (−58%). The 1.58 SOL pot was split: 0.32 SOL into the pool for every holder, the rest to the last 30 buyers; the 20% jackpot gave the very last buyer −1% instead of a loss like Late's.

03

The sniper, quiet token

1 SOL in the first second, boomed at 6 minutes

A bot buys 1 SOL in the token's first second, at the 50% launch tax. Three people follow. The token blows up at 6 minutes.

  • 1Sniper buys 1.00 SOL · 1 s
  • 2Ana buys 0.50 SOL · 40 s
  • 3Cleo buys 1.00 SOL · 4 min

chart at the boom ×1.1·pool 2.00 SOL back to the holders·pot 0.48 SOL: 60% to the 4 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.10 SOL) to every holder

What this showsBuying in the first second costs half your SOL in fees, and a quiet token never pays that back.

  • The sniper

    −0.35 SOL (−35%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 1 s · 50% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 6 min

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.65 SOL (pool 0.55 SOL · last-30 prize 0.10 SOL)

  • Ana, 40 s later

    −0.09 SOL (−18%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 40 s · 40% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 5 min

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.41 SOL (pool 0.32 SOL · last-30 prize 0.09 SOL)

  • Cleo, minute 4

    +0.10 SOL (+10%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 4 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 2 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 1.10 SOL (pool 0.97 SOL · last-30 prize 0.03 SOL · jackpot 0.10 SOL)

The lesson

Half of the sniper's SOL went to fees before anyone else arrived; 60% of that landed in the pot. As the earliest of the last 30 buyers it got 0.10 SOL of its own tax back. Not enough: −35%. On Honey, being first is the expensive place.

04

The sniper, pump

The same sniper in a token that goes ×8

Same bot, same 1 SOL in the first second, but this token pumps ×8 over three hours. A patient buyer puts 1 SOL in at minute 10, when the fee is down to 4%.

  • 1Sniper buys 1.00 SOL · 1 s
  • 2Patient buys 1.00 SOL · 10 min

chart at the boom ×8.3·pool 56.31 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.74 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.35 SOL) to every holder

What this showsEven in a pump, waiting ten minutes for the 4% fee beats sniping the first second.

  • The sniper, second 1

    +0.42 SOL (+42%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 1 s · 50% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 30 min 16 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 1.42 SOL (pool 1.42 SOL)

  • Patient, minute 10

    +1.38 SOL (+138%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 10 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 39 min 17 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 2.38 SOL (pool 2.38 SOL)

The lesson

The sniper wins this time (+42%), but the buyer who waited ten minutes for the 4% fee got 1.7× more tokens for the same SOL and ended at +138%. The launch tax turns "first" into "worst entry": the pump pays everyone, it pays the sniper least.

05

Paper hands, up

Sold at +60% in a token that went ×8

Pat and Holly both buy 1 SOL at minute 15 of the ×8 pump. Pat sells everything when the chart shows +60%. Holly holds to the boom.

  • 1Pat buys 1.00 SOL · 15 min
  • 2Holly buys 1.00 SOL · 15 min
  • 3Pat sells for 1.48 SOL at +62% · 58 min 14 s

chart at the boom ×8.1·pool 55.23 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.50 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.30 SOL) to every holder

What this showsSelling early locks a profit but gives up the claim; holding through this pump paid more.

  • Pat, sold at +60%

    +0.48 SOL (+48%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 15 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 43 min 48 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 1.48 SOL (sold 1.48 SOL at +62% · nothing to claim)

  • Holly, held

    +1.15 SOL (+115%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 15 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 44 min 42 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 2.15 SOL (pool 2.15 SOL)

The lesson

Pat banked +48% after the 4% sell fee and has nothing to claim after the boom. Holly's same tokens paid +115% from the pool. Selling early is allowed and it locks a profit; it just gives up the claim.

06

Paper hands, down

Sold at −30% in a token that dumped

A token pumps ×3 in 24 minutes, then its biggest holders sell. Pat and Holly both bought 1 SOL at minute 20, near the top. Pat sells at −30%. Holly holds to the boom at 60 minutes.

  • 1Pat buys 1.00 SOL · 20 min
  • 2Holly buys 1.00 SOL · 20 min
  • 3Buyer 60 buys 0.77 SOL · 24 min 18 s
  • 4Buyer 60 sells for 0.46 SOL at −35% · 33 min 24 s
  • 5Pat sells for 0.64 SOL at −30% · 38 min 45 s

chart at the boom ×1.2 (peak ×3.2)·pool 2.61 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.27 SOL: 60% to the 7 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.25 SOL) to every holder

What this showsBuying the top loses either way: the pool does not refund what the sellers already took out.

  • Pat, sold at −30%

    −0.36 SOL (−36%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 20 min · 4% fee · left the last 30 by selling at 38 min 45 s

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.64 SOL (sold 0.64 SOL at −30% · nothing to claim)

  • Holly, held

    −0.42 SOL (−42%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 20 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 40 min

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.58 SOL (pool 0.48 SOL · last-30 prize 0.10 SOL)

  • The last crowd buyer

    −0.31 SOL (−40%)

    bought 0.77 SOL at 24 min 18 s · 4% fee · left the last 30 by selling at 33 min 24 s

    Paid 0.77 SOL · Got back 0.46 SOL (sold 0.46 SOL at −35% · nothing to claim)

The lesson

Both lost about the same: Pat −36% at the chart price minus 4%, Holly −42% from her pool share plus her prize as one of the last 30 buyers. The pool does not refund what the sellers took out: it fell from 23.88 SOL at the peak to 2.61 SOL at the boom. Buying the top loses either way.

07

The last-second buyer

0.1 SOL twenty seconds before the boom

Eighty buyers pumped a token ×5 over an hour. Zed buys 0.1 SOL on Honey twenty seconds before the fuse runs out, without knowing it.

  • 1Buyer 80 buys 0.97 SOL · 58 min
  • 2Zed buys 0.10 SOL · 59 min 40 s

chart at the boom ×5.0·pool 37.18 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.02 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.20 SOL) to every holder

What this showsA small buy twenty seconds before the boom can take the jackpot, but nobody can time it.

  • Zed, 20 s before

    +0.15 SOL (+147%)

    bought 0.10 SOL at 59 min 40 s · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 20 s, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.10 SOL · Got back 0.25 SOL (pool 0.04 SOL · last-30 prize 0.001 SOL · jackpot 0.20 SOL)

  • The previous last buyer

    −0.54 SOL (−56%)

    bought 0.97 SOL at 58 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 2 min

    Paid 0.97 SOL · Got back 0.43 SOL (pool 0.43 SOL · last-30 prize 0.003 SOL)

The lesson

Twenty seconds is past the 6.5 s warm-up, so Zed's buy counted: the 20% jackpot (0.20 SOL) turned a −57% pool share into +147%. Nobody can plan this: the minute of the boom is drawn on-chain and known to no one.

08

Three seconds too late

The same 0.1 SOL, three seconds before the boom

Same token, same Zed, same 0.1 SOL, but the buy lands three seconds before the boom instead of twenty.

  • 1Buyer 80 buys 0.97 SOL · 58 min
  • 2Zed buys 0.10 SOL · 59 min 57 s

chart at the boom ×5.0·pool 37.18 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.02 SOL: 60% to the 29 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.20 SOL) to every holder

What this showsA buy younger than the warm-up is not counted: the jackpot goes to the buyer before it.

  • Zed, 3 s before

    −0.06 SOL (−57%)

    bought 0.10 SOL at 59 min 57 s · 4% fee · bought 3 s before the boom, not counted

    Paid 0.10 SOL · Got back 0.04 SOL (pool 0.04 SOL)

  • The previous last buyer

    −0.34 SOL (−35%)

    bought 0.97 SOL at 58 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 2 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.97 SOL · Got back 0.63 SOL (pool 0.43 SOL · last-30 prize 0.003 SOL · jackpot 0.20 SOL)

The lesson

Three seconds is under the warm-up: Zed's buy was not counted, and the jackpot went to the previous eligible buyer (0.20 SOL). Zed kept only its pool share, bought at the top: −57%.

09

The 31st

Pushed out of the last 30

Olly buys 0.5 SOL at minute 10 and is one of the last 30 buyers. Over the next fifty minutes, seventy more people buy. Thirty places, one per wallet, the 30 most recent buys.

  • 1Olly buys 0.50 SOL · 10 min
  • 2Buyer 51 buys 0.14 SOL · 36 min 54 s
  • 3Buyer 80 buys 0.97 SOL · 58 min

chart at the boom ×5.1·pool 37.56 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.03 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.21 SOL) to every holder

What this showsEvery new buyer pushes the earliest of the last 30 out; the pool share stays whatever happens to that place.

  • Olly, pushed out

    +0.38 SOL (+76%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at 10 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 31 min 48 s

    Paid 0.50 SOL · Got back 0.88 SOL (pool 0.88 SOL)

  • Still among the last 30

    +0.02 SOL (+15%)

    bought 0.14 SOL at 36 min 54 s · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 23 min

    Paid 0.14 SOL · Got back 0.16 SOL (pool 0.12 SOL · last-30 prize 0.04 SOL)

  • The very last buyer

    −0.34 SOL (−35%)

    bought 0.97 SOL at 58 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 2 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.97 SOL · Got back 0.63 SOL (pool 0.42 SOL · last-30 prize 0.003 SOL · jackpot 0.21 SOL)

The lesson

When the 31st newer buyer arrived (at 31 min 48 s), Olly was out of the last 30: no time share, no jackpot. He still claims his pool share like any holder, and because he bought early in a pump that was +76%. The last 30 buyers belong to the end of the story, not the beginning.

10

The creator

0.05 SOL fee, rent, a first buy, and 12.5% of the fees

Launching costs 0.111 SOL (fee, rents, network) plus the creator's first buy, which pays the 50% launch tax like anyone's. In return the creator earns 12.5% of every fee after Meteora's cut. Same creator, 0.5 SOL first buy, in two tokens.

  • 1Creator buys 0.50 SOL · first second

chart at the boom ×8.0·pool 55.10 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.56 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.31 SOL) to every holder

What this showsThe creator buys like everyone and earns from the trading, not from the holders' losses.

  • Creator of the ×8 pump

    +0.36 SOL (+58%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 31 min 10 s

    Paid 0.61 SOL · Got back 0.97 SOL (pool 0.71 SOL · creator fees 0.26 SOL)

  • Creator of the quiet token

    −0.23 SOL (−37%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · among the last 30 buyers for 12 min

    Paid 0.61 SOL · Got back 0.39 SOL (pool 0.28 SOL · last-30 prize 0.05 SOL · creator fees 0.06 SOL)

The lesson

No free tokens, no allocation: the creator buys like everyone, at the worst fee. Its income is the fee share, 0.26 SOL on the pump (+58% overall) and 0.06 SOL on the quiet token (−37%). A creator wins when people trade, not when they lose.

11

The creator dumps

The creator sells everything at +125%, versus a classic rug

The creator's first buy is 2 SOL (3.2% of the supply). Sixty buyers push the token ×4 in an hour. At minute 40 the creator sells it all. A holder had bought 1 SOL at minute 30. The token blows up at 1 h 30.

  • 1Creator buys 2.00 SOL · first second
  • 2Buyer 1 buys 0.07 SOL · 30 s
  • 3Holder buys 1.00 SOL · 30 min
  • 4Creator sells for 2.15 SOL at +128% · 40 min

chart at the boom ×4.0·pool 29.72 SOL back to the holders·pot 1.50 SOL: 60% to the last 30 buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.30 SOL) to every holder

What this showsA creator dump hurts the chart, but the pool still comes back at the boom, unlike a rug.

  • The creator, sold all at minute 40

    +0.29 SOL (+14%)

    bought 2.00 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · pushed out of the last 30 at 29 min 45 s

    Paid 2.11 SOL · Got back 2.40 SOL (sold 2.15 SOL at +128% · creator fees 0.25 SOL · nothing to claim)

  • Holder, bought at minute 30

    +0.02 SOL (+2%)

    bought 1.00 SOL at 30 min · 4% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 1 h

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 1.02 SOL (pool 1.02 SOL)

  • First crowd buyer

    +0.005 SOL (+7%)

    bought 0.07 SOL at 30 s · 43% fee · pushed out of the last 30 at 30 min

    Paid 0.07 SOL · Got back 0.08 SOL (pool 0.08 SOL)

  • The same holder in a classic rug

    −1.00 SOL (−100%)

    the dev pulls the liquidity

    Paid 1.00 SOL · Got back 0.00 SOL (pool gone, tokens worthless)

The lesson

The creator's dump was a big sell like any other: the chart dropped 9% and the pool lost 2.24 SOL. Nothing was stolen: the program owns the pool, and 29.72 SOL still came back to the holders at the boom (+2% for the holder). In a classic rug the same holder gets nothing.

12

The whale

20 SOL into a 5 SOL pool

A quiet token with twenty small buyers. At minute 30 a whale buys 20 SOL in one go and holds. The token blows up at 2 hours.

  • 1Buyer 4 buys 0.15 SOL · 17 min 47 s
  • 2Whale buys 20.00 SOL · 30 min
  • 3Buyer 12 buys 0.25 SOL · 1 h 03
  • 4Buyer 20 buys 0.40 SOL · 1 h 50

chart at the boom ×3.5·pool 26.40 SOL back to the holders·pot 0.68 SOL: 60% to the 21 counted buyers, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.14 SOL) to every holder

What this showsA big buy lifts the holders before it and sinks the ones after it; the whale is the pool.

  • The whale, minute 30

    −0.21 SOL (−1%)

    bought 20.00 SOL at 30 min · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 90 min

    Paid 20.00 SOL · Got back 19.79 SOL (pool 19.76 SOL · last-30 prize 0.03 SOL)

  • A buyer before the whale

    +0.14 SOL (+92%)

    bought 0.15 SOL at 17 min 47 s · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 102 min

    Paid 0.15 SOL · Got back 0.29 SOL (pool 0.26 SOL · last-30 prize 0.03 SOL)

  • A buyer after the whale

    −0.09 SOL (−35%)

    bought 0.25 SOL at 1 h 03 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 56 min

    Paid 0.25 SOL · Got back 0.16 SOL (pool 0.15 SOL · last-30 prize 0.02 SOL)

  • The very last buyer

    −0.05 SOL (−13%)

    bought 0.40 SOL at 1 h 50 · 4% fee · among the last 30 buyers for 10 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.40 SOL · Got back 0.35 SOL (pool 0.21 SOL · last-30 prize 0.003 SOL · jackpot 0.14 SOL)

The lesson

The whale was most of the pool, so it mostly got its own SOL back (−1%). Everyone who bought before it was lifted (+92% for a buyer at 17 min 47 s); everyone who bought after it paid the whale's price and lost (−35% at 1 h 03). Big money helps the holders who came before it, not after.

13

Nobody buys

The creator alone, boomed at 5 minutes

A launch with a 0.5 SOL first buy and not a single other trade. The fuse runs out at the minimum, 5 minutes.

  • 1Creator buys 0.50 SOL · first second

chart at the boom ×1.0·pool 0.25 SOL back to the holders·pot 0.15 SOL: 60% to the 1 counted buyer, 20% to the very last one, 20% (0.03 SOL) to every holder

What this showsAlone, the creator gets most of its SOL back; the launch costs and the cuts are the price of the try.

  • The creator, only holder

    −0.19 SOL (−30%)

    bought 0.50 SOL at the first second · 50% fee · launch costs 0.111 SOL · among the last 30 buyers for 5 min, the very last buyer

    Paid 0.61 SOL · Got back 0.43 SOL (pool 0.28 SOL · last-30 prize 0.09 SOL · jackpot 0.03 SOL · creator fees 0.03 SOL)

The lesson

Alone, the creator claims the whole pool (its own 0.25 SOL net of tax), the whole pot as the only buyer (0.12 SOL, its own tax coming back) and its fee share (0.03 SOL): 0.43 SOL of the 0.61 SOL it spent. Meteora's and Honey's cuts and the rents are the cost of the try.

14

A real one, on mainnet

TSST, F3xd…2pfL: three bots and a forced boom at 5 minutes

A test token launched by Honey on Solana mainnet on 14 October 2026. Three bots found the pool within seconds and bought 0.20 SOL between them, paying the launch tax. Nobody bought through Honey, so the list of the last 30 buyers stayed empty. The program forced the boom at the end of the token's drawn life, 5 min.

pool 0.171 SOL back to the holders·pot 0.041 SOL, no buyer counted: joins the holders' share·0 buyers on Honey

What this showsA real token nobody wanted still has its SOL waiting in the vault for the bots that sniped it.

  • 3 bots, together

    −0.03 SOL (−15%)

    bought 0.20 SOL in 8 trades on Meteora directly · 0.054 SOL of launch tax · not among the last 30 buyers (bought outside Honey)

    Paid 0.20 SOL · Got back 0.17 SOL (pool 0.171 SOL to claim, for 4.31M tokens)

  • The creator (Honey's test wallet)

    −0.06 SOL (−92%)

    launch costs ≈ 0.07 SOL under that day's test Config · no first buy

    Paid 0.07 SOL · Got back 0.005 SOL (creator fees 0.005 SOL to claim)

The lesson

A token nobody wanted still pays back: the bots that sniped it have 0.171 SOL of their 0.20 SOL waiting in the vault, minus the launch tax they chose to pay. The pot had nobody to pay, because no one bought on Honey. Nothing was lost to a rug, and nobody has claimed yet. Every transaction is public: the token on Solscan.

Nothing is sent on its own. At the boom the program keeps every SOL in the token's vault, and you claim your part in the Honey app: open the boomed token, the “Your claim” box shows your pool share (the holders' 20% of the pot included), your prize if you were among the last 30 buyers and the jackpot if you were the very last one, one signature does the rest. No deadline. The creator claims its 12.5% of the fees the same way.

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Launch appRead the docs
Honey · memecoins with a secret expiry · on Solana @honeyapp_me